Daggers out for Windows Mobile

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By Peter White (Wednesday, 29th October 2008)

Last month's revelation that Microsoft's updated mobile operating system, Windows Mobile 7, will be delayed until as late as 2010 could not have come at a worse time for the Redmond giant.

Since this announcement, competing operating systems have shown that they're doing anything but standing still. Apple has revealed a strong set of figures for sales of its 3G iPhone; developments have continued at the Symbian Foundation with the appointment of a new head, Lee Williams, and the induction of 12 new members; and, of course, Google's Android has become a market reality with the release of the T-Mobile G1.

This has led some commentators to predict what would have been unthinkable a year ago - the death of Windows Mobile. A first warning shot was fired by Om Malik, a famous technology blogger, who pointed to the recent surge in market shares for RIM and Apple compared with Windows Mobile and the opinion that Android is a direct competitor to the Microsoft OS.

However, last week, Robert Cringely (the InforWorld blogger pseudonym) went a step further making the prediction that "Windows mobile is probably doomed." Cringely presents an interesting thesis based on the principles of standards and market share which tend to fall along ratios of 85-10-5. ZDNet picked up Cringely's baton, predicting a similar fate for Windows Mobile, attributing this in part because it is such an awful platform and referring to the implementation of Internet Explorer as a "joke application".

It was left to the guys over at infoSync to jump to Microsoft's defence. They point out that the platform is more than just an OS and includes important services like Microsoft Exchange, Windows Live Messenger and Microsoft Office. The Windows CE kernel and Zune are also submitted as supporting evidence and they also point out that the combination of Qualcomm's SnapDragon platform and Windows Mobile 7 will "take on the exploding netbook market."

It is almost six years to the day since Windows Mobile made its commercial debut in the form of the SPV handset. To be fair, these predictions of doom have an element of journalistic panache. Nonetheless, it's a sign of just how radically the competitive landscape has changed since 2002 for speculation of Windows Mobile's longevity to have taken root.